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Guessing, which is what the Employee Benefit Research Institute says almost half of all workers do, is not a good idea.
"To meet your goals, you may need to work longer, save more, or take more risk in your portfolio," Tignanelli says. "Most people need to set priorities and make tradeoffs."
Projecting into the future is an imperfect art, which is why he suggests doing it early and often. Do-it-yourselfers will find no shortage of worksheets and online tools - T. Rowe Price has a good one at troweprice.com/ric, as does FORTUNE's corporate sibling at cnnmoney.com/tools.
For those who prefer talking about money face-to-face, consider a trip to a fee-only planner, who can help craft a plan for a flat fee (rather than one who will manage your portfolio for a percentage of assets).
SOURCES to consult: napfa.org; discovergarrettplanningnetwork.com
2. Where should I invest now?
Andy Serwer: Over the next five years or so, that's simple. Unlike building a wardrobe, if you are starting a portfolio, you want to invest in what is out of fashion at the moment. The least-loved sector in all of investingdom right now is a group of names most familiar to you, which is to say large-cap U.S. stocks.
Fact: The S&P 500 index has underperformed the S&P 400 mid-cap index and the S&P 600 small-cap index every single year this decade. (And over the past three years the U.S. market has been trounced - and we are talking wiped - by overseas markets.)
For a list of shunned names, look no further than the Dow Jones industrials. Remarkably, 11 of these stocks - GE, Coke, IBM, Home Depot, Merck, Dupont, Intel, Wal-Mart, GM, Verizon, and AT&T - have trailed the S&P 500 over the past five years. (The latter two telcos are down 30 percent and 24 percent, respectively.) Of course these companies have problems, but they are also out of favor.
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